A ser publicado no International Journal of Astrobiology
Submetido em Set. 24, 2021; Aprovado em Nov. 15, 2021
First View Online: Dez. 14, 2021.
SELF-CONSCIOUS INTELLIGENT TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETIES IN THE UNIVERSE: A SIMPLE DIRECT APPROACH TO PROBABLE ASTROSOCIOLOGICAL REALISTIC SCENARIOS
L. A. L. da Silva1,+
1 Alexander von Humboldt Scientific Research Nucleus
Omega Centauri Network for the Advancement of Scientific Education
www.redeomegacentauri.org
+ e-mail: luizastronomo@gmail.com; site: www.luizaugustoldasilva.com
Postal address: Caixa Postal 109 – CEP 95590-970 – Tramandaí – RS – Brazil
ABSTRACT. We present an alternative equation to estimate the probable number N of self-concious intelligent technological societies (SCITS’s) within the radius of the observable universe. This equation has only one poorly-known factor, Pc, the SCITS’s formation probability, which can be estimated within an uncertainty by a factor of 102 (10-11 ≤ Pc ≤ 10-9) by applying the restriction imposed by Fermi’s Paradox. The SCITS’s formation rate for a typical spiral galaxy is then estimated as ≈ 1 civ.Gyr-1. For a very optimistic maximum life expectancy ≈ 108 yr, conclusion is that two civilizations never coexist in the same galaxy. Our estimated values for Pc are compatible with current biological and astrophysical evidences. We also propose an alternative astrosociological classification scheme which enables us to speculate about possible evolutionary paths for SCITS’s in the universe. The so called “Closed Bottle Neck” (CBN) scenario suggests that civilizations are no exit evolutionary ways. We argue that simply there would not be insterstellar travels nor Galaxy colonization or a Galactic Club. Thus Fermi’s Paradox results eliminated, and the perspectives about the future of our own civilization may not be positive.
Key Words. Extraterrestrial civilizations, Astrosociology, Fermi’s Paradox.